Voila une estimation qui donne des frissons.. hélas tres probable...AU VU DES LA CRISE EN IRAN ET EN ITALIE...
Source et suite
Since the emergence of COVID-19 in December 2019, the team have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the developing pandemic. Their new report presents an assessment of the relative sensitivity of international surveillance of COVID-19.
Dr Sangeeta Bhatia, report author, explained: “We compared the average monthly number of passengers travelling from Wuhan to major international destinations with the number of COVID-19 cases that have been detected overseas. Based on these data, we then estimate the number of cases that are undetected globally and find that approximately two thirds of the cases might be undetected at this point. Our findings confirm similar analyses carried out by other groups.”
As of 20 February 2020, over 74,000 cases of COVID-19 (formerly 2019-nCoV) have been reported in China (with 2121 deaths). Over 1000 cases have been confirmed in 29 regions and countries outside mainland China (including Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR).
Increasing cases outside mainland China
In this report the team analyse COVID-19 cases reported and confirmed in different countries that were exported from mainland China, and estimate the number of cases that have remained undetected.
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