RIEN DE BIEN OPTIMISTE..
Ok, so we know what the nightmare scenario is, and that as DB explains, it is certainly a probable outcome. What are the other 5 possible permutations for the second round? Here, courtesy of Market News is a breakdown of all 6 scenarios:
- Macron-Le Pen (63%/37%, Ipsos poll April 14): The most plausible. The 2 candidates have led the polls for a few months. This scenario would come with no surprise on the financial markets, which have already integrated it.
- Melenchon-Le Pen (60%/40%): The most feared. Risk is not fully priced, so it would come as a bomb on markets. Choose between the devil and the deep blue sea.
- Macron-Fillon (64%/36%): The most welcome. This would give much appeasement with both Le Pen and Melenchon moved away.
- Melenchon-Fillon (60%/40%): The most surprising. Fillon was not even favoritein the right party primary elections (Juppe was), Melenchon got 11% in 1st Round in 2012 Presidential, but French people know how an outsider can surprise (2002 elections, Le Pen (father) passing in 2nd Round)...
- Fillon-Le Pen (56%/44%): The most at right. With huge abstention expected from left voters in this scenario, financial markets would not exclude a Le Pen win.
- Macron-Melenchon (55%/45%): The most erratic. It would be feared that Le Pen voters slide towards Melenchon.